Do you want to change, and improve the world?
If your answer is yes, and you want to do it concretely, I advise you to read this message carefully, without prejudice, without being superficial, and ...
Let's look at some data, on global GDP, for the year 2021.
Population 7.888 billion (2021)
GDP Per Capita $12,234.80 (2021)
GDP growth rate 5.9% annual change (2021).
Let's see the data for 2022, and the forecasts for 2023.
In October 2022, the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook was published, a scenario released twice a year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which provides an analysis of economic developments, on a global scale in the short term, and in the medium term.
The key message that emerges from the new Outlook is that the world economy is in the midst of a slowdown, more significant than expected, as well as a climate of general uncertainty.
The factors weighing on the scenario concern several fronts:
- that of inflation, which is reaching the highest peaks in recent decades;
-that of monetary policy: most of the central banks are in fact proceeding, with rate hikes, to favor a normalization of prices;
- that of the pandemic, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which sadly remain on the scene.
Slowing economic growth.
Let us first look at the data on gross domestic product on a global scale. After a 6% rebound in 2021, the Fund forecasts a slowdown in the pace of growth of the world economy to 3.2% for the year in 2022, and to 2.7% in 2023: in both cases, the estimates have been revised to downward, compared to the previous scenario of April 2022.
In particular, for advanced economies, a slowdown is expected from 2.4% in 2022 to 1.1% in 2023, compared with a GDP growth of 3.7%, for emerging and developing economies, both in 2022 than in 2023.
The IMF highlights how the growth rate forecast for world GDP for 2023 represents the weakest value since 2001, obviously excluding the year of the Covid shock, and the 2009 financial crisis.
With good probability, one third of the world economy will experience a contraction in the year 2022, or in 2023. Among these countries we find Italy, and Germany, for which a change in GDP is forecast for 2023, respectively equal to -0.2% for Italy and -0.3% for Germany.
For the Eurozone as a whole, a moderate growth rate of 0.5% in 2023 is expected: therefore, it is a question of a substantial stalemate, in terms of economic growth - a stalemate that the Monetary Fund predicts may also concern the USA and China , the two largest economies in the world.
In this context of weak growth, the energy crisis weighs heavily on the euro area; on the Asian front, China is instead marked by the real estate crisis, and by frequent lockdowns. China's zero-Covid policy is estimated to be weighing on the country's economy, especially in Q2 2022. Given the size of the Chinese economy, and its key role in global value chains, the situation of the Asian economy, could significantly weigh on foreign trade and economic activity globally.
The danger of inflation.
Alongside slowing economic growth is the warning element of inflation. The recent dynamics of price growth have in fact proved to be broader and more persistent than expected, especially in advanced economies, and a primary element of attention for policy-makers, representing a significant threat to real incomes, as well as the overall macroeconomic stability.
Inflation on a global scale has now reached its highest points since the beginning of the 2000s: the IMF estimates that it could reach 8.8% in 2022, to then give way to a partial slowdown in 2023 (6.5%) and 2024 (4.1%), incorporating the effects of generally restrictive monetary policies, and a reduction, hopefully, in energy prices.
Who benefits from inflation?
Inflation benefits debtors, and therefore mainly companies, and states, while it penalizes creditors, and therefore savers, and workers.
A look at foreign trade.
Finally, looking at the data on foreign trade flows, the Monetary Fund forecasts, for the year 2022, growth in the volumes of international trade in goods of 2.9%, slowing down compared to +10.8% in 2021. In 2023 the rhythms of growth, could slow down further, and the increase in flows would be limited to 2%.
The recent ExportPlanning data on quarterly world trade signal, in particular, how global exports have entered negative territory, on a cyclical basis, starting from the third quarter of 2022, after the conspicuous increase in the second quarter, thus signaling a potential trend reversal , after a first half of strong growth.